I have spent the first several months of 2014 trying to determine what trends in the Tampa Bay area would begin to materialize. Month after month things remained pretty stagnate throughout 2014. For example the number of homes being put on the market for sale showed a slight increase over the first several months of 2014 but actual home sales stayed relatively flat during the same period.
Foreclosures still are having a big impact on the overall real estate market throughout the Tampa Bay area. Foreclosed homes being put up for sale remained fairly flat while sales of foreclosures appeared to have peaked in May of 2014 and has declined over the last three months. Short sales has shown a steady decline in both listings and actual sales throughout 2014.
The new home construction market shows a definite upswing. The Tampa Bay Times reported that the 2014 tax rolls estimate upwards of $298 million in new construction, an almost 40% increase over 2013!
Per square footage prices throughout the Tampa Bay area continued to vary greatly. The average per square foot for Tampa, Florida was $123 which was a 7.9% increase over 2013. Pasco County shows an $80 per square foot which is a very slight increase over 2013. Here's an interesting very short term peculiarity...Pinellas has been at a $130 per sq. ft. average throughout 2014 but jumped to $160 per sq. ft. in July of 2014. Hillsborough showed a $110 per sq.ft. average in early 2014 that slowly climbed to $123 per sq. ft by June but then showed a shocking jump to $196 per sq. ft in July 2014!
The median sales price in Tampa, Florida so far in 2014 is $170,000.00 which represents a 2.4% increase over 2013. A breakdown of individual neighborhoods shows both hot and cold markets with some neighborhoods increasing average listing prices of 20-80% while other neighborhoods show decreases of 20-40%.
I remain concerned that until the the job market in the Tampa Bay area improves we will continue to see a real estate market dramatically affected by foreclosures and short sales which will continue to attract real estate investors as buyers which will further skew sales figures.
The current median family income in Tampa ($56,068) continues to decline from the peak in 2007 ($64,624) and is now 13.24% lower than in 2007. Real per capita income in Tampa peaked as well in 2007 ($29,855) and hit a low in 2011 ($25,844) with some improvement in 2014 ($26,332), but overall still shows an 11.80 % decline since 2007. In 2006 Florida was listed 10th among all states in the number of millionaires by January of 2014 Florida had dropped to 30th among all states in the number of millionaires despite an overall improving economy, no state income taxes and low inheritance taxes.
With statistics like this it is anyone's guess what the future holds for the residential real estate market within the Tampa Bay market. In my mind there are just to many conflicting statistics to show any real concrete trends and until our job market and overall economy shows more strength the real estate market will remain unsettled.